报告简介  Abstract

After the outbreak of COVID-19, Various containment measures are taken. Among them, an important one is quarantine. Now the current quarantine time in operation is the same for everyone, as it is implicitly considered the incubation period distribution of COVID-19 is the same for everyone, although they have different age or gender. For testing the effect of age and gender on the incubation period of COVID-19, a novel two-component mixture regression model is proposed to analyze the effects of risk factors on the incubation period. An EM method is proposed to get the estimates of parameters of interest and the simulation results show the proposed method outperforms the simple regression method and has good robustness. Importantly, the proposed method is applied to a Zhejiang’s COVID-19 dataset, it is found that the age and gender really have no effect on the incubation period of COVID-19 and thus the current quarantine time in operation is reasonable.

嘉宾简介  About the Speaker

周勇教授，华东师范大学经管学部常务副主任，统计交叉科学研究院院长。国家杰出青年基金获奖者，教育部长江学者特聘教授，中国科学院百人计划入选者，国务院政府特殊津贴专家，“新世纪百千万人才工程”国家级人选。现任国务院学位委员会统计学科评议组成员，教育部应用统计专业硕士教学指导委员会委员、中国统计学会副会长，中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会副理事长，中国管理科学与工程学会常务理事，曾任中国统计教育学会副会长。同时担任国内外几个重要学术期刊的编委和副主编，包括《应用数学学报》执行编委，《数理统计与管理》、《系统科学与数学》、《应用概率统计》、《中国管理科学》、《工程理论与实践》编委和国际期刊《Journal of Business and Economic Statistics》和《Canadian Journal of Statistics》等副主编。主要从事大数据分析与建模、金融计量、风险管理、计量经济学、统计理论和方法等科学研究工作，取得许多有重要学术价值和影响的研究陈果。先后承担并完成国家自然科学基金项目，国家杰出青年基金，自然科学基金委重点项目等科学项目10余项，曾获得省部级奖励二项。在包括国际顶级统计学和经济计量学杂志《The Annals of Statistics》、《Journal of The American Statistical Association》、《Biometrika》、《Journal of Econometrics》和《Journal of Business & Economic Statistics》等上发表学术论文近200篇。

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